Over 50% of countries set to surpass fossil fuels with renewable energy capacity, study finds

 

Over “50% of countries have a total renewable energy pipeline that exceeds their existing fossil fuel capacity” according to new research published today (11 November 2025) by the TPI Global Climate Transition Centre (TPI Centre) at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE). This concretely demonstrates the momentum of the low-carbon transition, despite headwinds and retreat in some other policy areas.

 

The results are in the State of the Sovereign Transition 2025 report which reviews the climate change performance of 85 high-, middle- and low-income countries evaluated against the Assessing Sovereign Climate-related Opportunities and Risks (ASCOR) framework, up from 70 countries last year. 

 

The expanded country universe covers around 90% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and GDP, as well as 100% of four major government bond indices. The findings demonstrate how countries perform across three pillars, covering long term climate ambition, policy implementation and the leveraging of finance.

 

Although there was progress in multiple countries in implementing climate policies and finance, policy reversals in the US drag down the global average trend due to its retreat from climate action over the last year. The authors state that “emissions have continued to increase both globally and within the ASCOR universe” despite steady progress in climate policies and finance disclosure. 

 

Overall, “the results highlight the need to link long-term ambition with concrete action that is regularly monitored and disclosed.” Encouragingly, most countries have taken initial steps to set targets, develop policies and plan their finance needs and allocations. However, they often fail to meet additional criteria on ambition, transparency or credibility.

 

Across the sample of 70 countries assessed over the past two years, low- and middle-income countries have made more progress in the Climate Policies and Finance pillar score compared to high-income peers. This improvement is driven by important policy developments across emerging market economies in climate legislation, carbon pricing and transparency in climate costing.

 

The Emissions Pathways pillar, which examines the historical and future decarbonisation journeys of countries, the authors state that “most countries (78%) have set net zero targets but very few countries reflect this ambition in their historical emissions trends or 2030 targets. This disconnect undermines the credibility of long-term pledges, with 97% of countries failing to set 2035 targets that are aligned with their cost-effective 1.5C benchmarks. 

 

Comparing countries across regions reveals that the EU and Latin America continue to lead, while the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) achieve the lowest average scores. This underperformance in the MENA region reflects its continued dependence on fossil fuel rents and limited climate policy development. These regional patterns remain broadly consistent with those observed in 2024.  

 

Setenay Hizliok, Sovereign Project Lead, TPI Centre, said: 

“As climate action faces political and economic challenges, maintaining a strong policy signal for investors through national transition plans is more important than ever. 

 

“Despite the withdrawal of climate targets and policies in the US, we observe new policies and disclosures especially in emerging markets.” 

 

Claudia Gollmeier, Managing Director (Singapore), Head of Investment Management (APAC & MEA), Colchester Global Investors and ASCOR Co-Chair, said:

“As a sovereign-only investor and early ASCOR supporter, Colchester Global Investors welcomes its expansion to 85 countries—covering 90% of global emissions and major bond indices. 

 

“This broader analysis, now revealing patterns and trends, is key to inform engagement and tracking sovereign progress.”

Esther Law, Senior Investment Manager, Emerging Markets Debt and Responsible Investing Lead at Amundi Asset Management and ASCOR Co-Chair, said: 

"The State of the Sovereign Transition 2025 report provides a very detailed and high-quality analysis on the progress of the 85 countries assessed on the three pillars of the ASCOR framework. 

 

“The analysis helps investors, asset owners, sovereign issuers, policy makers and other stakeholders to understand the key trends and areas of focus and build strategies to move towards the climate goals of the Paris Agreement.”

 

Adam Matthews, Chief Responsible Investment Officer, Church of England Pensions Board, said:

“This year’s report shows growing leadership from emerging markets and a disappointing pullback from developed markets. 

 

“Countries should take advantage of the unbiased and academically rigorous data and analysis to have meaningful conversations with investors and focus on the most critical and relevant factors for themselves.”

 

-ENDS-

For interviews with the authors, please contact Liam Collins on l.collins4@lse.ac.uk or gri.media@lse.ac.uk  

Notes to editors   

This page has been modified adding that the initial process in the 2025 ASCOR assessment cycle was powered by ClimateAligned’s AI-driven technology as a pilot project.

[1] This figure is subject to market-price and foreign-exchange fluctuations and, as the sum of self-reported data by TPI supporters, may double-count some assets.