State of the Sovereign Transition 2026

The State of the Sovereign Transition 2026 report reviews the climate change performance of 85 high-, middle- and low-income countries using the new Assessing Sovereign Climate-related Opportunities and Risks (ASCOR) framework Version 2.0 (v2.0). This is the first time countries have been assessed against the new version of the framework, which includes novel elements such as a Below 2°C benchmark and sector-specific indicators. The report presents our key findings on the climate performance of assessed sovereigns and focuses on two increasingly market-relevant themes: sectoral transition planning and adaptation policy.

Key points for decision-makers:

• Our overall assessment of 85 countries demonstrates that policy signals from governments remain too weak to deliver targeted emissions reductions, and recent emissions trends remain insufficient to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement.
• Recent emissions trends are particularly far from Paris alignment. Among 75 countries with a quantified 2030 target and a cost-effective low-carbon benchmark, only seven have an emissions trend consistent with 1.5°C and 16 with Below 2°C.
• Our new analysis of sectoral transitions shows that sector-specific policies are broadly in place, but a breakdown of nationally determined contribution (NDC) targets by sector is less common and emissions in the most polluting sectors continue to increase.
• Forward-looking commitments to provide international climate finance have weakened. As pledges running to 2025 have expired without replacement, the number of countries with commitments meeting their proportional share of the international climate finance goal has fallen from seven to four.
• The weakest-performing area of the framework is still fossil fuels, which has deteriorated further this year. The 2025 deadline to phase out fossil fuel subsidies expired without replacement, leaving only five of 71 assessed countries with an active phase-out commitment.